The Endless Climate Debate:
Will the US Act or Retreat into Denial?
This article is an excerpt from Episode 2: US Climate Policy, Failing Global Commitments, & Accelerated City-level Targets of the Climate Fairplay Podcast.
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Decades of Climate Battles Reach a Boiling Point in the 2024 US Election
As climate tension is building and the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the United States is facing the decision once again in the 2024 election if we are going to elect leaders who will act on climate change or leaders who deny climate change even exists. There’s a high probability that the US, historically the largest greenhouse gas polluter, will do a 180 on climate policy and start pumping out unregulated carbon pollution.
US climate policy has been stuck in an infuriating, repetitious cycle since the Paris Agreement was reached. Every election, we are on the cusp of electing politicians who don’t believe in climate change taking power. People who will eagerly pull us away from doing anything about climate change. When there is a major win for climate legislation, there is a constant backpedaling with how the US approaches climate policy. This goes back to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 when the United States initially signed the climate commitment, couldn’t get it ratified in Congress, and eventually backed out altogether. Removing the United States from the Paris Agreement was one of Donald Trump’s first moves as president. Then one of Biden’s first moves was to reinstate the US back into the international agreement.
If the US pulls out of the Paris Agreement, we would likely see a domino effect of other countries forgetting about their climate targets. This election will be the moment for the US to either commit to climate progress or backtrack on everything we’ve done so far nationally and pretend the problem doesn’t exist.
The United States is a microcosm of climate tensions. Our entire society has been built on fossil fuels. It’s hard to think of an area of the economy that fossil fuels aren’t fully integrated into. This makes reaching net zero emission goals difficult because the scientific evidence overwhelmingly shows how greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are the cause of climate change. By the end of 2021, the US had emitted more than 20% of total global greenhouse gas. With just a fraction of the worldwide population, one country is responsible for a fifth of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
Reliable energy and transportation, as well as strong industry sectors built America. They also account for 76% of total greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have increased the carbon in the atmosphere by 50%. These gasses stay in the atmosphere and trap heat and research shows will greatly increase the likelihood of causing a climate tipping point. A 6% emission reduction each year is required to reach the goal of a 50% reduction by 2030.
We're Driving Climate Tipping Points
To quickly recap, 1.5° Celsius is at the heart of pretty much every climate conversation because it’s an environmental threshold. If we stay below this, we are on the path to a better future and if we cross it, the full consequences are still being studied, but the evidence shows severe and irreversible changes in our environment. A rise in average global temperature of 1.5°C or 2.7°F, will greatly increase the likelihood of triggering global environmental tipping points.
Some of the most realistic and devastating tipping points are the melting of ice sheets, the massive dieback of biodiversity, a slowing of the Gulf Stream, and the thawing of permafrost, but there are many tipping points scientists are studying. Climate change will also cause more intense droughts, a longer wildfire season, more severe and frequent tropical storms, and flash flooding. There is an undeniable body of evidence showing that human-sourced greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide and methane cause the temperature rise.
2024 Election: Silence on Climate as 2030 Goals Loom
We are less than six years from our 2030 climate targets and carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record highs last year. In fact, of the 42 markers that the Climate Action Tracker measures, we were only meeting one, electric automobile sales. By 2050, the damages from severe weather are estimated to rise to between $1.7 and $3.1 trillion every year if we remain on the current emissions path. That’s not to mention what’s lost in the natural world, or human life.
With how important 2030 net zero targets are, it’s disturbing that the United States is putting all national and international climate efforts on the line in the 2024 election. If Donald Trump wins, say goodbye to any chance of the US coming anywhere close to the emission reductions needed to meet current US climate goals. Trump has called climate change a “hoax” and vowed to roll back environmental regulations and unleash drilling.
On the flip side, Kamala Harris was the tie-breaking vote in the Senate for the Inflation Reduction Act which provided the most funding in the US for climate adaptations and renewable energy. So far in this election year, Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz have been surprisingly quiet about climate change, but they have lengthy records supporting climate initiatives. These provide a glimpse into how they might act on climate and the environment when in the White House.
Paris Agreement Targets, Inflation Reduction Act, & International Partnerships: Vice President Kamala Harris' Climate Record
Starting with Kamala Harris’ record on climate change, her largest accomplishments have been as vice president. The Biden-Harris administration has climate targets like reaching the 2030 nationally determined contributions of at least 50% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It also has the goal of 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035, and for net-zero emissions no later than 2050.
In 2022, the Biden-Harris administration passed major climate provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act. It includes the largest investment in renewable energy and adapting to sustainable transportation. The Biden-Harris administration devoted a 400 billion dollar investment in climate funding to over 40,000 projects. Since the Biden-Harris administration took office, over $240 billion has been invested in clean energy manufacturing. The United States is on track to triple energy from wind generation and increase solar generation seven to eight-fold by 2030. This investment will have a major impact on US emissions. Researchers at Princeton University found this will cut 43-48% of emissions throughout the US economy by 2035.
At a minimum, we can expect Harris to continue to build on the initiatives of the Biden-Harris administration. Based on Harris’ record as a senator and a presidential nominee in 2020, we can hope Harris will push for more progress.
As a senator, Harris co-sponsored the Green New Deal. She also called for a ”climate pollution fee” on the corporations who pollute the most. As a candidate in 2020, she called for a 10 trillion dollar increase in spending toward climate adaptation by 2030. Harris’ first major environmental justice victory dates to 2005 when as the district attorney of San Francisco she put together an environmental justice unit. As vice president, Harris also committed the US to funding the international Green Climate Fund and is an advocate for international partnerships to address climate change. Harris is running on one of the best environmental records in history for a presidential candidate.
Walz transformed Minnesota's Climate Policy
The commitment to climate progress also shows in Harris’ vice presidential choice, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. In 2019, Walz signed an executive order declaring climate change an “existential threat.” The order established a climate change sub-cabinet and advisory council to develop strategies to mitigate climate change and enhance Minnesota’s resilience. These groups developed a Climate Action Framework with goals to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The framework calls for increased funding for public transit access, EV charging infrastructure, forest and wetland restoration, and clean energy. Walz championed multiple major climate bills, including a budget bill requiring Minnesota to obtain 100% of its electricity from carbon-free resources by 2040.
Harris as a 2020 candidate did support a fracking ban and has now pulled back on this stance. Walz allowed a major pipeline to be built in the state, angering progressives and disregarding the Stop Line 3 protests. Overall, the combined record of Harris-Walz is one climate advocates should be excited about. This strong record is also why environmental groups all over are coming to support Harris.
Trump’s Climate Cluelessness: a Ticket to Environmental Disaster
The Trump-Vance ticket is pretty much the complete opposite in terms of climate and environmental policy. Trump calls climate change a “hoax” and his lack of understanding of the science shows in his policy positions. Starting with what Trump did as president, he removed 100 environmental protection laws, most of which centered on air pollution and emissions. Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement and global climate negotiations. He ordered climate change to be removed from all government documents in agencies like the EPA. Trump wants to increase oil and gas drilling.
At 2024 fundraising events and political rallies, Trump said he’ll roll back environmental regulation and unleash oil and gas drilling. He would also do everything to stop the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, stop clean energy investments, and even talked about pulling EV credits. In addition, Trump has spread a lot of falsehoods about climate change, and unfortunately, many people believe him.
At this point, this should come as no surprise, as almost everyone knows Trump is bad for the climate and a friend to oil. I still feel it is important to talk about because what voters choose will set the course of US policy on climate and environmental issues for the remainder of the decade and beyond.
2024 US Election: The Decade-Defining Choice for Our 2030 Climate Goals
In summary, in recent years, the US has stimulated climate progress. Yet, the US still is not meeting the nationally determined contributions agreed to in the Paris Agreement. Research shows a 6% emission reduction each year is required to reach the goal of 50% reduction by 2030.
The good news is that the technology exists to reach our 2030 net zero emission goals. Renewable energy, public transportation, and sustainable food systems are proven methods of removing carbon pollution from our daily lives. If Trump wins this election there is zero chance of this happening. This is a pivotal point for climate progress. If Harris wins, at least there is a chance the US could be a leader in global sustainable development and technology. The US has a choice to elect a climate denier or a climate leader as president. If the US pulls out of the Paris Agreement, it will allow other countries to follow suit and set the course for the nation’s and the world’s climate policy for the remainder of the decade and beyond.
So, Americans, step up and vote to act on climate change rather than pretend it does not exist. We need climate action and deserve better than this repetitive climate debate.
About
The Climate Fairplay is an independently operated podcast and publication with a goal to address the urgency of climate change and connect this to what’s happening on a community and individual level. The podcast aims to make climate and environmental issues relevant and actionable for listeners.
Meet the Writer
Cody Sanford is a trained ecologist and environmental communicator focusing on climate issues and solutions that make a difference on a community-level.